Article #21530

Making a deal means the US finding a position that doesn’t threaten the Iranian regime’s survival. The alternative is a prolonged and damaging stalemate

After months of war, the US has struggled mightily to compel Iran to restore stable passage through the strait of Hormuz, let alone accept Washington’s core demands – the abandonment of Iran’s nuclear programme, dismantlement of its missile forces and cancellation of its regional proxy networks. Iran’s military is badly degraded and its regime disrupted, but as of today it continues to prevent most countries from shipping oil, gas, fertiliser and helium through the strait. The global economy is at risk, Donald Trump’s domestic approval is sliding, Russia is profiting, and US military preparedness – particularly in the Indo-Pacific – is suffering.

The US is superior to Iran on every measure of national power that matters. It possesses military forces of overwhelming scale, the world’s largest economy, and the ability to cut nations off from global markets through the power of the dollar. Why has Iran been able to frustrate the US’s designs so thoroughly?

Christopher S Chivvis is a senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace